Smoke forecast
Where the smoke over Cleveland was, and where the model sends it next. Scrub back 12 hours or forward 48. Every hour shown is a model estimate, not a measurement.
The scale is anchored to visibility, because that is the one reading you can take yourself without trusting a model. Distances are approximate.
From Edgewater Park the downtown skyline is sharp three miles east, Terminal Tower and Key Tower separate cleanly, and the lake horizon is a hard line.
Downtown still reads from Edgewater but has flattened, and the horizon over Lake Erie has dissolved into grey.
Key Tower is still the tallest thing from Edgewater, three miles off, but the buildings beside it have merged into one shape.
From the lakefront the near downtown buildings hold while the top of Key Tower, a mile out, fades into the haze.
The top of Terminal Tower goes. From Edgewater you can lose the skyline entirely.
Cleveland sits on the Ontario corridor, taking smoke that crosses Lake Erie on northerly and northwesterly flow from fires in Ontario and Quebec. The lake matters twice: it gives the plume a clean run with nothing to break it up, and the lake breeze can pin it against the shoreline through the afternoon.
June 2023 put Cleveland among the worst air quality in the country for parts of two days on Quebec smoke, and it is the event most people here reference.
The verdict at the top of this page answers that for Cleveland specifically. Lake Erie is the reason it can be a sharper answer here than inland: the lake gives an approaching plume a clean run with nothing to break it up, so smoke crossing the water tends to arrive whole rather than diluted. Everything shown is a model estimate rather than a measurement at your address.
That is the headline answer above: the clear time, the first stretch of at least six straight hours below the Hazy threshold. Lake Erie complicates it at the back end as much as the front. The lake breeze can pin a plume against the shoreline through the afternoon, so the Edgewater lakefront can stay bad while the air a few miles south has already turned, and a clear time is a forecast for the point, not for the county.
Ontario or Quebec, arriving on northerly and northwesterly flow across Lake Erie. Nothing in the American West needs to be involved, which is why Cleveland smoke days often come as a surprise. June 2023 is the reference here as it is across this whole corridor: Quebec smoke put the city among the worst air quality in the country for parts of two days.
Ontario and Quebec, with Lake Erie as the last leg. Detroit sits upwind on northwesterly setups and Toronto sits at the near end of the same corridor, getting the smoke thick a day or so earlier, and both are linked below for exactly that reason. Run the timeline backward on the map and the plume comes down over the lake rather than in overland.
The five-day strip above gives the day-by-day read and the timeline covers forty-eight hours hour by hour. The most useful thing to watch for Cleveland is the Lake Erie crossing: once a plume is over the water there is nothing left to break it up, so the question is already answered a day out. Forecasts are sharpest one to two days out and the page shows where the models disagree.
From Edgewater Park, two things: whether Terminal Tower and Key Tower still separate cleanly three miles east, and whether the lake horizon is still a hard line. The horizon goes first. When Key Tower is still the tallest thing but the buildings beside it have merged into one shape, you are in the middle of the scale. When the top of Terminal Tower goes and the skyline disappears from Edgewater, that is the bottom.
Where Cleveland's smoke usually shows up first, and the places that share its air.
On northwesterly flow the Ontario plume crosses the Detroit River before it crosses Lake Erie to Cleveland.
Toronto sits at the near end of the same Ontario corridor and gets the smoke thick, a day or so before it reaches the Erie shore.
Most smoke in the eastern half of the continent is Canadian, and it is old by the time it arrives.
Smokeshow is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not health, medical, or safety advice. Forecasts are model estimates and can be wrong, sometimes by a lot. Descriptions of what you might smell, see, or feel are generalizations, not predictions about your body. For decisions about your health, outdoor activity, or air quality safety, rely on official sources like AirNow.gov, the National Weather Service, and your local health authorities, and talk to a medical professional about your own situation.