Smoke forecast
Where the smoke over Jackson was, and where the model sends it next. Scrub back 12 hours or forward 48. Every hour shown is a model estimate, not a measurement.
The scale is anchored to visibility, because that is the one reading you can take yourself without trusting a model. Distances are approximate.
The Grand stands sharp to the northwest, about twenty miles up the valley, and the Teton range separates peak by peak along the whole skyline.
The Tetons have flattened into one blue wall with no couloirs showing, though Sleeping Indian still reads across the valley to the east.
The Tetons are gone. Sleeping Indian, about eight miles east, is a silhouette with no rock left in it.
From the Town Square Snow King holds a mile south, while the ridgeline above the runs fades out entirely.
Snow King goes. From downtown you lose the mountain sitting directly above the town.
Jackson takes smoke from central and southern Idaho, the Great Basin, and western Montana on westerly and southwesterly flow, plus whatever burns in the Bridger-Teton and the parks immediately north. In heavy California and Pacific Northwest seasons, smoke also arrives aloft from a thousand miles away and settles.
The valley's name describes the problem. A hole rimmed by mountains pools cold air overnight and holds smoke at the valley floor into the morning, so the town can read worse than the passes above it. The 2016, 2018, and 2021 seasons all produced stretches where the Tetons were not visible from town for days, which in a valley built entirely around looking at them is the whole story.
The verdict at the top of this page answers that for Jackson specifically, and it reads the model at the valley floor. That is the number that matters and the one that flatters the town least: a hole rimmed by mountains pools cold air overnight, so the air in town can read worse than the air on the passes above it. Everything shown is a model estimate rather than a measurement at your address.
That is the headline answer above: the clear time, the first stretch of at least six straight hours below the Hazy threshold. The hole is why the six-hour hold matters here. Cold air settles into the valley overnight and holds smoke at the floor into the morning, so a forecast that dipped for one hour and called it clear would be describing the passes, not the Town Square.
Either something is burning close, in the Bridger-Teton or the parks immediately north, or smoke has ridden westerly and southwesterly flow in from central and southern Idaho, the Great Basin, or western Montana. In heavy California and Pacific Northwest seasons there is a third case that catches people out: smoke arrives aloft from a thousand miles away and then settles into the valley, so the air goes bad with no fire within several states.
Central and southern Idaho and the Great Basin are the usual answer, arriving on westerly and southwesterly flow, with western Montana adding to it and the Bridger-Teton supplying the local case. The long-range one is California and the Pacific Northwest, a thousand miles out, and that smoke comes in high before it comes down. Run the timeline backward on the map and you can see which of those you are breathing.
The five-day strip above gives the day-by-day read and the timeline covers forty-eight hours hour by hour. In a valley built entirely around looking at the Tetons, the question people are usually asking is when the range comes back, and that is not quite the same question as when the air is cleaner. Visibility recovers from the top of the scale downward, so the Grand reappears well before an all-clear. Forecasts are sharpest one to two days out.
Look northwest up the valley at the Grand first: when the range stops separating peak by peak and flattens into one blue wall with no couloirs showing, smoke has arrived. Then look east at Sleeping Indian across the valley, and when that has no rock left in it the Tetons are already gone. The last check is Snow King, directly above town. When the mountain sitting on top of you goes, that is the bottom of the scale.
Where Jackson's smoke usually shows up first, and the places that share its air.
Central and southern Idaho smoke rides westerly and southwesterly flow into the valley, and the Treasure Valley reads it first.
The Great Basin smoke that reaches Jackson on southwesterly flow crosses the Salt Lake bowl on the way north.
Out here two separate things decide your air: what arrives, and whether the ground you live on lets it leave.
Smokeshow is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not health, medical, or safety advice. Forecasts are model estimates and can be wrong, sometimes by a lot. Descriptions of what you might smell, see, or feel are generalizations, not predictions about your body. For decisions about your health, outdoor activity, or air quality safety, rely on official sources like AirNow.gov, the National Weather Service, and your local health authorities, and talk to a medical professional about your own situation.