Smoke forecast
Where the smoke over New York was, and where the model sends it next. Scrub back 12 hours or forward 48. Every hour shown is a model estimate, not a measurement.
The scale is anchored to visibility, because that is the one reading you can take yourself without trusting a model. Distances are approximate.
From the Brooklyn Heights Promenade the Lower Manhattan skyline is sharp a mile across the East River, and the Verrazzano reads clean about six miles south.
The Verrazzano has flattened to a silhouette and the harbor has gone grey, but One World Trade holds its shape from Brooklyn.
From Brooklyn the Manhattan skyline is still there but the buildings have merged into one mass, and the Statue of Liberty has gone soft.
The near towers hold from the Promenade while the top of One World Trade, a mile off, fades into the haze.
The upper floors of One World Trade and the Empire State Building disappear. From Brooklyn you can lose Manhattan entirely.
New York sits at the end of the same Quebec and Ontario corridor that runs through the Great Lakes, but far enough downwind that smoke usually arrives aloft and then mixes down. That delay is why the city often gets clear morning air followed by a visibly bad afternoon on the same plume.
June 7, 2023 is the reference. Quebec smoke gave New York the worst air quality of any major city in the world, turned the sky orange, grounded flights, and produced the images that most Americans now picture when they hear the phrase wildfire smoke.
The verdict at the top of this page answers that for New York specifically, and the hour matters more here than almost anywhere. Because the city is far enough downwind that smoke arrives aloft and then mixes down, a clean morning and a visibly bad afternoon on the same plume is an ordinary New York pattern, so a reading taken at 8am does not describe 3pm. Everything shown is a model estimate rather than a measurement at your address.
That is the headline answer above: the clear time, the first stretch of at least six straight hours below the Hazy threshold. The mixing-down pattern is why the six-hour hold earns its keep here. Smoke sitting aloft can leave the surface air briefly clean while the plume is still overhead, and a forecast that called that the all-clear would be reversed by mid-afternoon.
Quebec and Ontario, at the end of the same corridor that runs through the Great Lakes, usually a couple of days after the fires put the smoke in the air. June 7, 2023 is the reference and the reason most Americans have a mental image for this at all: Quebec smoke gave New York the worst air quality of any major city in the world, turned the sky orange, and grounded flights.
Quebec and Ontario, arriving aloft after a day or more in transit down the Great Lakes corridor. New York is the far end rather than a waypoint: Toronto sits under the same plumes about two days earlier and gets them thick, which is why it is the upwind link here. Run the timeline backward on the map and the plume comes down from the northwest, spreading out as it travels.
The five-day strip above gives the day-by-day read and the timeline covers forty-eight hours hour by hour. New York gets a long warning. The smoke has to cross Ontario, the Lakes, and upstate New York first, so the five-day view is unusually useful here. The thing it cannot tell you cleanly is what time of day the plume mixes down, which is why the hour-by-hour timeline is worth reading alongside it.
From the Brooklyn Heights Promenade the Verrazzano about six miles south is the far check and goes first. Then the Statue of Liberty going soft while the Manhattan buildings merge into one mass. Then the top of One World Trade a mile off. When its upper floors and the Empire State Building disappear and you can lose Manhattan entirely from Brooklyn, that is the bottom of the scale, and it is exactly what June 2023 looked like.
Where New York's smoke usually shows up first, and the places that share its air.
The Quebec and Ontario plumes that reach New York cross Toronto about two days earlier, thick and unaged, before spreading out over the Northeast.
Most smoke in the eastern half of the continent is Canadian, and it is old by the time it arrives.
Smokeshow is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not health, medical, or safety advice. Forecasts are model estimates and can be wrong, sometimes by a lot. Descriptions of what you might smell, see, or feel are generalizations, not predictions about your body. For decisions about your health, outdoor activity, or air quality safety, rely on official sources like AirNow.gov, the National Weather Service, and your local health authorities, and talk to a medical professional about your own situation.