Smoke forecast
Where the smoke over Fresno was, and where the model sends it next. Scrub back 12 hours or forward 48. Every hour shown is a model estimate, not a measurement.
The scale is anchored to visibility, because that is the one reading you can take yourself without trusting a model. Distances are approximate.
You can see the mountains. The Sierra crest reads clean to the east, fifty miles and more out, and the Coast Range marks the western horizon.
The Sierra has gone to a flat blue band with no snow or canyon detail, and the Coast Range has disappeared.
The mountains are gone in both directions. Nothing past about ten miles resolves and the valley feels closed.
From downtown the near towers hold while anything past a few miles disappears into a flat grey wall.
The tops of the downtown buildings go. From the freeway you lose the city a mile ahead.
Fresno has the hardest air in the country to begin with, and wildfire smoke lands on top of that. The San Joaquin Valley is ringed by mountains and vents poorly, so agricultural dust, traffic, and industry already sit in the air before a single fire starts. Smoke arrives from the Sierra, from the Coast Range, and from fires hundreds of miles north that drain south down the valley.
The 2020 Creek Fire burned in the Sierra directly east and put Fresno under some of the worst readings ever recorded in the valley. Locals here measure a good day by whether the mountains are visible at all, because in a bad stretch they are not visible for weeks.
Fresno's air is hard before anything is burning. Agricultural dust, diesel, and valley industry sit in the air year-round because the San Joaquin vents poorly in every direction. On a bad non-fire day the mountains are already gone. The difference is smell and colour: dust reads tan and dry, smoke reads grey-brown and you can taste it.
The verdict at the top of this page answers that for Fresno specifically, and Fresno needs the distinction more than any city on this site. The San Joaquin vents poorly in every direction, so agricultural dust, diesel, and valley industry are already in the air before a single fire starts. The mountains can be gone on a day with no smoke in the forecast at all. Everything shown is a model estimate rather than a measurement at your address.
That is the headline answer above: the clear time, the first stretch of at least six straight hours below the Hazy threshold. It is worth being precise about what that promises in Fresno. It is the point at which the smoke component drops, not the point at which the valley is clean. The baseline this city starts from does not go anywhere, and a clear time here often arrives with the mountains still missing.
It may not be smoke at all. Fresno has the hardest air in the country to begin with, and on a bad non-fire day the dust and diesel alone will close the valley. When it is smoke, it comes off the Sierra directly east, off the Coast Range to the west, or down the valley from fires hundreds of miles north. The 2020 Creek Fire is the local marker: it burned in the Sierra directly east and produced some of the worst readings ever recorded here.
Three directions. The Sierra immediately east, which is the close and worst case. The Coast Range to the west. And fires hundreds of miles north that drain south down the Central Valley, which is the case where nothing near Fresno is burning and the air is still full. Run the timeline backward on the map and the direction sorts them, which also helps separate a smoke day from a dust day.
The five-day strip above gives the day-by-day read and the timeline covers forty-eight hours hour by hour. The realistic frame for Fresno is that the strip is showing the smoke on top of the baseline rather than the whole picture, and in a bad stretch the mountains are not visible for weeks. Forecasts are sharpest one to two days out and the page shows where the models disagree.
Can you see the mountains. The Sierra crest to the east is fifty miles and more out and the Coast Range marks the west, and having both is the top of the scale here. When the Sierra flattens to a blue band with no snow or canyon detail and the Coast Range has gone, something is in the air. Then use your nose and the colour: dust reads tan and dry, smoke reads grey-brown and you can taste it.
Where Fresno's smoke goes after it leaves, and the places that share its air.
On southerly flow the San Joaquin fills first and the Sacramento Valley takes it next, so a bad stretch here is often a warning for up-valley.
This is the corridor where the haze is not always smoke, and saying so is most of the job.
Smokeshow is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not health, medical, or safety advice. Forecasts are model estimates and can be wrong, sometimes by a lot. Descriptions of what you might smell, see, or feel are generalizations, not predictions about your body. For decisions about your health, outdoor activity, or air quality safety, rely on official sources like AirNow.gov, the National Weather Service, and your local health authorities, and talk to a medical professional about your own situation.