Smoke forecast
Where the smoke over Sacramento was, and where the model sends it next. Scrub back 12 hours or forward 48. Every hour shown is a model estimate, not a measurement.
The scale is anchored to visibility, because that is the one reading you can take yourself without trusting a model. Distances are approximate.
The Sutter Buttes read clean about forty miles north, and on the best mornings the Sierra crest shows to the east.
The Sierra is gone and the Sutter Buttes have flattened to a grey lump, though the Coast Range still marks the west.
The Buttes disappear. The valley closes in and nothing beyond about ten miles resolves at all.
From the Tower Bridge the Capitol dome holds a mile east, while the downtown towers behind it fade.
The Capitol dome goes soft from across the river. From Old Sacramento you can lose the skyline entirely.
Sacramento sits at the bottom of a valley with mountains on three sides, which means it collects smoke from all of them. Fires in the northern Sierra, the Coast Range, and the foothills all drain into the Central Valley, and the valley holds smoke the way a bowl holds water. The Delta breeze is the only reliable flush, and when it fails the air stays put.
The 2018 Camp Fire is the reference: smoke from Paradise, ninety miles north, gave Sacramento the worst air quality in the world for days and closed schools across the region. The 2020 August Complex season repeated it.
Central Valley haze is not always smoke. Agricultural dust, valley fog in the cooler months, and trapped local emissions all close the horizon the same way. When the Delta breeze fails, whatever is in the valley stays in the valley regardless of source. Colour is the tell: valley haze reads tan or white, smoke reads grey-brown and carries a smell.
The verdict at the top of this page answers that for Sacramento specifically, and it is a smoke reading rather than a haze reading. Those differ often here: agricultural dust and valley fog close the horizon exactly the same way smoke does, so the verdict can read All clear on a day when the Sutter Buttes have gone. The section above on what is not smoke gives you the tell. Everything shown is a model estimate rather than a measurement at your address.
That is the headline answer above: the clear time, the first stretch of at least six straight hours below the Hazy threshold. In Sacramento the answer is very often a question about the Delta breeze, which is the valley’s only reliable flush. When it runs, the valley empties. When it fails, whatever is in the valley stays in the valley, and the clear time slides out with it.
Sacramento sits at the bottom of a valley with mountains on three sides and collects from all of them: the northern Sierra, the Coast Range, and the foothills all drain in here. The 2018 Camp Fire is the reference for how far that reaches: smoke from Paradise, ninety miles north, gave the city the worst air quality in the world for days and closed schools across the region. If the sky is tan or white rather than grey-brown, though, check the dust and fog explanation above first.
The northern Sierra, the Coast Range, and the Sierra foothills, all of which drain into the Central Valley. Fresno is the upwind check on southerly setups, because the valley works as one system and the San Joaquin fills before the Sacramento Valley does. Run the timeline backward on the map and you can see whether the smoke came over a range or up the valley floor.
The five-day strip above gives the day-by-day read and the timeline covers forty-eight hours hour by hour. The single most useful thing to watch in Sacramento is whether the Delta breeze is forecast to run, because that decides whether a plume leaves or settles. 2018 and the 2020 August Complex both show what a valley that will not flush looks like. Forecasts are sharpest one to two days out.
The Sutter Buttes about forty miles north are the far check, with the Sierra crest visible east on the very best mornings. When the Sierra goes and the Buttes flatten to a grey lump while the Coast Range still marks the west, something has arrived. When the Buttes disappear and nothing past about ten miles resolves, the valley has closed in. And watch colour: tan or white is dust or fog, grey-brown with a smell is smoke.
Where Sacramento's smoke usually shows up first, and the places that share its air.
The Central Valley drains as one system, so on southerly flow the San Joaquin fills before the Sacramento Valley does.
This is the corridor where the haze is not always smoke, and saying so is most of the job.
Smokeshow is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not health, medical, or safety advice. Forecasts are model estimates and can be wrong, sometimes by a lot. Descriptions of what you might smell, see, or feel are generalizations, not predictions about your body. For decisions about your health, outdoor activity, or air quality safety, rely on official sources like AirNow.gov, the National Weather Service, and your local health authorities, and talk to a medical professional about your own situation.