Smoke forecast
Where the smoke over Reno was, and where the model sends it next. Scrub back 12 hours or forward 48. Every hour shown is a model estimate, not a measurement.
The scale is anchored to visibility, because that is the one reading you can take yourself without trusting a model. Distances are approximate.
Mount Rose is sharp to the southwest, about fifteen miles out, and Peavine Peak holds its ridgeline to the northwest.
Mount Rose has flattened to a blue shape and Slide Mountain beside it has lost its scar, though Peavine still reads.
The Sierra crest is gone entirely. Peavine, about seven miles northwest, is a silhouette with no texture left.
From the Truckee River path the downtown towers hold a mile off, while the hills ringing the valley vanish.
The top of the Grand Sierra goes. From midtown you can lose downtown Reno.
Reno sits directly downwind of the northern Sierra and northern California, which is the worst possible address in a bad California fire year. Smoke crosses the crest on westerly flow and drops into the Truckee Meadows, and the surrounding ridges hold it. Nevada's own Great Basin fires add to it on southerly and easterly setups.
The 2018 Camp Fire, the 2020 season, and the 2021 Dixie Fire all buried Reno for extended stretches, with 2021 producing weeks of degraded air and repeated school and event cancellations.
The verdict at the top of this page answers that for Reno specifically. Reno is the one city on this site whose address is the whole problem: it sits directly downwind of the northern Sierra and northern California, so in a bad California fire year the answer here is bad more often than almost anywhere. Everything shown is a model estimate rather than a measurement at your address.
That is the headline answer above: the clear time, the first stretch of at least six straight hours below the Hazy threshold. Reno gets the worst of both halves. Smoke crosses the Sierra crest on westerly flow, and then the ridges ringing the Truckee Meadows hold it, so the arrival is fast and the departure is not. The 2021 Dixie Fire ran weeks of degraded air here, with repeated school and event cancellations.
Most likely the northern Sierra or northern California, with the smoke coming over the crest on westerly flow and dropping into the Truckee Meadows. Nevada’s own Great Basin fires add to it on southerly and easterly setups. The 2018 Camp Fire, the 2020 season, and the 2021 Dixie Fire are the three events people here measure against, and all of them buried the valley for extended stretches.
Over the Sierra crest from the northern Sierra and northern California on westerly flow, which is the common case, or up out of the Great Basin on southerly and easterly setups. Sacramento is the upwind check on the California case, sitting in the Central Valley a step earlier on the same flow. Run the timeline backward on the map and you can watch the plume come over the crest.
The five-day strip above gives the day-by-day read and the timeline covers forty-eight hours hour by hour. In Reno the strip is the one to read, because the ridges mean a plume that has arrived does not leave on the next shift. 2021 is the reference for how long that can run. Forecasts are sharpest one to two days out and the page shows where the models disagree.
Mount Rose to the southwest is the far check at about fifteen miles, and Slide Mountain beside it is the fine one. When its scar stops reading, something has arrived even if Peavine to the northwest still looks fine. When the Sierra crest is gone entirely and Peavine is a silhouette with no texture, it is well in. Losing downtown from midtown is the bottom of the scale.
Where Reno's smoke usually shows up first, and the places that share its air.
Northern Sierra and northern California smoke crosses the Central Valley before it comes over the crest into the Truckee Meadows.
On southerly setups the San Joaquin is the upwind end of the flow that carries California smoke up into western Nevada.
This is the corridor where the haze is not always smoke, and saying so is most of the job.
Smokeshow is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not health, medical, or safety advice. Forecasts are model estimates and can be wrong, sometimes by a lot. Descriptions of what you might smell, see, or feel are generalizations, not predictions about your body. For decisions about your health, outdoor activity, or air quality safety, rely on official sources like AirNow.gov, the National Weather Service, and your local health authorities, and talk to a medical professional about your own situation.