Smoke forecast
Where the smoke over Minneapolis was, and where the model sends it next. Scrub back 12 hours or forward 48. Every hour shown is a model estimate, not a measurement.
The scale is anchored to visibility, because that is the one reading you can take yourself without trusting a model. Distances are approximate.
The downtown skyline is sharp from Bde Maka Ska, about three miles southwest, and from the Mendota Bridge you can pick out both downtowns nine miles apart.
The skyline still reads from Lake Nokomis, roughly five miles out, but it has gone flat and grey and St. Paul has disappeared behind it.
From Bde Maka Ska the IDS Center is still the tallest thing there, three miles off, but the buildings behind it have merged into one shape.
From the Stone Arch Bridge the near towers hold while the tops of the tallest ones, a bit over a mile away, fade into the haze.
The upper floors of the IDS Center disappear. From the West River Parkway you can lose downtown entirely.
Minneapolis is one of the first major American cities Canadian smoke reaches. Fires in Manitoba, northwestern Ontario, and Saskatchewan sit almost directly upwind, and on northerly flow their smoke crosses the border and reaches the Twin Cities in under a day. That proximity is why Minnesota's air quality alerts often fire before Chicago's, and why the same plume that arrives here fresh reaches the East Coast a day or two later, thinned out.
The 2021 and 2023 seasons both put Minneapolis among the worst air quality readings in the country for stretches of days, and 2021 is the season most people here mean when they say the summers changed.
The verdict at the top of this page answers that for Minneapolis specifically. The Twin Cities are close enough to the source that the answer changes fast. Manitoba and northwestern Ontario smoke crosses the border and gets here in under a day, so a clean morning and a bad evening on the same plume is an ordinary Minneapolis pattern rather than an unusual one. Everything shown is a model estimate rather than a measurement at your address.
That is the headline answer above: the clear time, the first stretch of at least six straight hours below the Hazy threshold. Being near the front of this corridor makes that answer more volatile than it is on the East Coast. Smoke that reaches New York has spent two days spreading out and arrives as a broad haze; smoke that reaches the Twin Cities is still shaped like a plume, so it can leave as sharply as it came.
Because Manitoba, northwestern Ontario, and Saskatchewan sit almost directly upwind and northerly flow is a short trip. This is the reason Minnesota’s air quality alerts often fire before Chicago’s do, and the reason people here date the change to the 2021 season rather than to anything more recent. Scrub the timeline backward twelve hours to see the plume come down across the border.
Almost always the Canadian boreal forest, and specifically Manitoba, northwestern Ontario, and Saskatchewan rather than the western states. Minneapolis is near the front of that corridor: the same plume that arrives here fresh reaches the East Coast a day or two later, thinned out. Run the timeline backward on the map and the path comes down from the northwest, not in from the Rockies.
The five-day strip above gives the day-by-day read and the timeline covers the next forty-eight hours hour by hour. Minneapolis sits at the sharp end of the forecast, which helps: at under a day from the source, the model is working inside the window where it is most reliable. It also means the model has less warning, so the page shows where the runs disagree rather than pretending to one answer.
The Twin Cities give you a two-downtown test nothing else on this list has: from the Mendota Bridge you can normally pick out both skylines nine miles apart, and St. Paul disappearing behind Minneapolis is the first real step down. After that it is the IDS Center from Bde Maka Ska, still the tallest thing there or merged into one mass with the buildings behind it, and finally its upper floors going from the West River Parkway.
Where Minneapolis's smoke usually shows up first, and the places that share its air.
The Manitoba and northwestern Ontario fires that reach the Twin Cities put smoke over Winnipeg first, usually less than a day earlier.
Most smoke in the eastern half of the continent is Canadian, and it is old by the time it arrives.
Smokeshow is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not health, medical, or safety advice. Forecasts are model estimates and can be wrong, sometimes by a lot. Descriptions of what you might smell, see, or feel are generalizations, not predictions about your body. For decisions about your health, outdoor activity, or air quality safety, rely on official sources like AirNow.gov, the National Weather Service, and your local health authorities, and talk to a medical professional about your own situation.