Smoke forecast
Where the smoke over Winnipeg was, and where the model sends it next. Scrub back 12 hours or forward 48. Every hour shown is a model estimate, not a measurement.
The scale is anchored to visibility, because that is the one reading you can take yourself without trusting a model. Distances are approximate.
From the Forks the downtown towers are sharp and the prairie horizon reads as a hard line in every direction, which on flat ground is the cleanest visibility test there is.
The skyline still reads from the Forks but has flattened, and the horizon has dissolved into a soft band with no edge.
The Golden Boy still catches light on the Legislative Building about a kilometre off, but the buildings behind it have merged into one mass.
From the Esplanade Riel the near downtown towers hold while their tops fade into the haze.
The top of 201 Portage goes. From the Forks you can lose downtown entirely.
Winnipeg is usually the source end of the corridor, not the receiving end. Fires in northern Manitoba, northwestern Ontario, and Saskatchewan burn a few hundred kilometres north and northwest, which means Winnipeg gets smoke fresh and concentrated rather than aged and thinned. What lands here thick reaches Minneapolis within a day and Chicago, Detroit, and the Great Lakes a day after that.
That proximity is why Manitoba’s worst fire seasons register as national air quality events rather than provincial ones.
The verdict at the top of this page answers that for Winnipeg specifically. What makes this city different from most on this corridor is that its smoke has not travelled far. The fires are a few hundred kilometres north and northwest, so what arrives here is fresh and concentrated rather than aged and thinned out. Everything shown is a model estimate rather than a measurement at your address.
That is the headline answer above: the clear time, the first stretch of at least six straight hours below the Hazy threshold. Winnipeg has no valley to flush and no lake breeze to fight, so a clear time here is mostly a wind question and it tends to be a cleaner answer than the same forecast further down the corridor. What it does not tell you is what is still burning to the north.
Because Winnipeg is upwind of almost everyone else and downwind of the boreal forest. Fires in northern Manitoba, northwestern Ontario, and Saskatchewan sit a few hundred kilometres north and northwest, and their smoke does not need days in transit to get here. That is also why a bad Manitoba fire season registers as a national air quality event rather than a provincial one. What starts here does not stay here.
Northern Manitoba, northwestern Ontario, and Saskatchewan, on northerly and northwesterly flow. Winnipeg is the near end of the chain rather than the far end: what lands here thick reaches Minneapolis within a day, and Chicago, Detroit, and the rest of the Great Lakes a day after that. Run the timeline backward on the map and the plume comes down from the north rather than in from anywhere.
The five-day strip above gives the day-by-day read and the timeline covers forty-eight hours hour by hour. Proximity cuts both ways here: fresh smoke means a wind shift can improve things fast, and it also means a new start a few hundred kilometres north can undo a good forecast inside a day. That is why the page shows where the models disagree rather than hiding the spread.
Use the horizon, which is a luxury most cities on this list do not have. From the Forks the prairie edge reads as a hard line in every direction on a clean day, and flat ground makes that the most sensitive visibility test there is. The edge softens into a band before any downtown building looks different. After that it is the Golden Boy on the Legislative Building, then the top of 201 Portage.
Where Winnipeg's smoke goes after it leaves, and the places that share its air.
What lands here thick reaches the Twin Cities within a day, which is why Minnesota alerts often follow a bad Manitoba week.
A day behind Minneapolis on the same plume, thinned out by the extra distance.
The far end of this leg. Smoke that is over the Forks today is a Great Lakes problem the day after next.
Most smoke in the eastern half of the continent is Canadian, and it is old by the time it arrives.
Smokeshow is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not health, medical, or safety advice. Forecasts are model estimates and can be wrong, sometimes by a lot. Descriptions of what you might smell, see, or feel are generalizations, not predictions about your body. For decisions about your health, outdoor activity, or air quality safety, rely on official sources like AirNow.gov, the National Weather Service, and your local health authorities, and talk to a medical professional about your own situation.